Pappy And Chocolate Chip Cookies
No, this isn’t a post on how to pair bourbon with cookies. It’s not some gluttonous baking recipe either. Today, we examine the bourbon market through the lens of a chocolate chip cookie study. Yes, you read that correctly but hear me out. This isn’t your typical bourbon blog post, but this study may explain some of the bourbon craziness we see today. The study took place in 1975 by Stephen Worchel, Jerry Lee, and Akanbi Adewole. The study examined how scarcity (and different levels of it) affected a persons rating (or perceived quality) of a cookie.
Bold by me for emphasis
In 2 experiments, a total of 200 female undergraduates rated the value and attractiveness of cookies that were either in abundant supply or scarce supply. In the scarce condition, the cookies were either constantly scarce or they began in abundant supply and then decreased. Ss were told that this decrease in supply was either due to an accident or to a high demand for the cookies. In the abundant condition, the cookies were either constantly abundant or first scarce and then abundant. The increase in supply was either due to an accident or to a lack of demand for the cookies. These conditions were crossed with a manipulation in which Ss thought either a high or low number of additional Ss were still to participate in the study.
Results indicate that (a) cookies in scarce supply were rated as more desirable than cookies in abundant supply; (b) cookies were rated as more valuable when their supply changed from abundant to scarce than when they were constantly scarce; and (c) cookies scarce because of high demand were rated higher than cookies that were scarce because of an accident. With regard to abundance, cookies that were constantly abundant were rated higher than cookies that began scarce but later became abundant.
People at a table with two cookies in a jar rated those cookies higher quality than the people at a table with ten cookies in a jar. In situations where the cookies went from abundant to scarce, quality ratings pushed even higher. Que Pappy Van Winkle, Buffalo Trace Antique Collection, anything from Stitzel-Weller or National Distillers. Even older Wild Turkey is getting in the mix. This wasn’t an intentional marketing tactic used by the bourbon industry. Even though it happened organically, it explains the crazy prices. There are almost too many examples of an unbalanced price-to-quality ratio to cover in this post. Sure, paper label Weller Special Reserve is better I just don’t think it’s $300 better.
In the late 90’s to mid-2000’s most “limited” bourbons were abundant. I have a friend that owns a retail store and bought two Pappy Van Winkle Decanter Sets at a discount because the distributor couldn’t sell them. FWIW, I saw the same bottle sell for $7,000 a few weeks ago. The rapid change in demand also changed how most view bourbon. Certain bourbons became scarce quickly, and that changed our perceived quality. Higher quality usually means higher prices. There’s no doubt most of the previously mentioned bourbons are good, if not excellent. They’re just not as great as we make ourselves believe. You can say it’s supply and demand, but I think it’s even deeper than that.
It’s like the anecdote of two restaurants. One has a line out the door. The other has no line. Most assume the restaurant with the line has better food than the restaurant with no line. They’re also more likely to visit that restaurant with the line because they want the best food. What if the restaurant with no line just has a much larger waiting area to accommodate customers?
Chumming the waters
What does that mean for bourbon today? While things naturally unfolded for bourbon, there’s still plenty of Brands/Distilleries ready to pounce on the feeding frenzy. Bourbon is ripe with people biting at anything on a shelf. All brands are doing is dropping a hook in the water and pulling it back up with a fish. Be careful when buying a new bottle or brand. Are you buying it because the store only received three bottles for the year? Or, are you buying it based on taste? Scarcity is a valuable thing. This principle is everywhere in today’s bourbon market.
Ok, while it’s interesting to try and make connections from studies like this to bourbon I can’t write off collecting entirely. I’m still on the lookout for old Stitzel-Weller and National Distillers bottles. Collecting rare bottles is fun. Every now and then I have to remind myself “there’s still plenty of great bourbons available” and “yes, bourbon collecting is a little crazy but still fun.”
18 comments
Collecting Bourbon and Rye really is fun. Life has become a constant scavenger hunt, although if anyone was following me around they would certainly find my frequent and unscheduled stops at liquor stores unsettling. What’s surprising is how often you can find very nice bottles at fair prices. The aftermarket be damned. If I can’t buy it at retail I don’t want it. Its a buzz kill.
I often will stop at lunch with coworkers, one day one of the guys said I have never seen someone look at liquor as much as you …lol
How about we just drink the bourbon we purchase instead of hording/trading it like gold or something. I met a guy awhile back and we started talking bourbon. After hearing about the bourbons I had at the house he wanted to do some trading. I told him that I drink my bourbon and all but one of the bottles I mentioned to him have been opened and enjoyed to varying degrees.
If I can get a 20 yr pappy or something like that, by god I am going to drink it !
I came here expecting rare cookies for Pappy samples. Am disappointed.
Very interesting and I agree. I really enjoy Pappy 20 year, but am not going to pay after
market pricing. I have been drinking Pappy 20 year for 15 years now, back when you could buy it in the fall off the shelf.
What I have I keep for special occasions and now look for other top quality bourbons for my regular sipping.
This phenomenon is absolutely true.
We’ve all seen the crowded original smaller bar that was always the place to be expand and something gets lost in the vastness.
People want what is perceived a cut above. There is simply no way most people paying premium for PVW could discern difference from Weller or maybe even Buffalo Trace $20 bottle.
I have paid $450 for a bottle of Pappy 20 and I have paid $179 for the same bottle at a retail store. I assure you the $450 bottle doesn’t taste any better than the $179 bottle. I have to agree that there are lots of high quality Bottles that are in the $30 range that are as good to my taste. However, it still doesn’t stop me from buying higher priced bourbons. Cheers!
Totally agree Jeff. The hunt is a lot of the fun in finding rare or hard to find bourbons and ryes. I will NOT buy in the aftermarket. What fun is that….I enjoy $24 bottles of bourbon ie. OGD 114 and 23 year Willett Family Estate that cost me over $400 AT THE DISTILLERY. Yes, I can go online and pay over two grand for a 23 year old Pappy….but for some reason, I would feel like I had cheated. I enjoy too many different bourbons and ryes that I can easily get to give up my fun. Happy Hunting!!
This post is dead on. Collecting is fun (i.e. my brother in law collects Blanton’s bottle tops – helps that the bourbon is delish) but you have to purchase by taste. Go with what you like, not with what others think they like. I always drop in on small independent liquor stores and look for bottles with dust on them or in the discount bin. Usually they turn out OK or not very good, but sometimes you find a sweet surprise. And that’s where all the fun is!
Good article. But I have a question, will
A retailer open a bottle for you to try? If not where can I taste different brands? I’m a weller kick, but am willing to try different brands. I’m a newbie I’m tried mitchners, wellers, buffalo trace, and RI brand rye, and of course pappy (40 per oz)
Depends on where you live. In the Twin Cities area, there is a liquor store called south lyndale and those guys have every single bourbon/scotch/rye/whiskey they carry available for tasting. It doesnt haurt they also have decent prices (not the best prices, but for the chance to taste whatever i want i don’t mind paying 5-10 more for a bottle.)
I live in Kansas City therefore, I would be willing to barter some locally produced burbon’s for some other regional favs
Blake, it’s funny that you write this, because I just recently read an article about Julian Van Winkle III. In it, he was quoted as saying that that his grandfather advised that you never bottle what you think you can sell; you bottle less than that, to keep demand up.
I don’t think that bourbons like the Van Winkle lineup will ever be commonly available again, because the difficulty of obtaining a bottle is part of the appeal. This is a good example of a Giffen good.
When you apply your argument to things like the Wild Turkey rye that you have pictured, I agree with you- it makes no sense that those types of bottles go for so much money. I think a lot of the mystique in some of those old bottles is just placebo effect- it’s not really that different from the current stuff, but people think it is just because it’s old.
That’s interesting! Do you mind linking me to the article?
Very true! My wife and I just discussed the crazy stand-in-line for rare releases topic just the other day. She does it for the chance at victory. I do it for the Bourbon, but there is certainly a thrill when you score something unique. It is a funny psychological thing. I had two bottles of gifted horse in my hand priced at around $33. I put them back for a single Handy selling for over retail.
I read an article in the Wall Street Journal where a guy was setting up a web site where you can buy ‘antique’ bourbons, whiskey’s, etc. At the time (think it was last fall) the site was not operational. Now I cannot locate the address. If anyone knows of it please pass it on. I am not interested in paying after market prices, just want to see what they have and the asking prices. should be interesting….
I definitely agree with the cookie comparison. I enjoy the hunt. Also talking bourbon with the clerks or owners. I had to make a deal with myself not to pay more than $300. for any bottle. Excluding tax. Lol . You can see the gouging as you go store to store. I’ve been lucky to find three stores that sell the limited bourbons at virtually retail. I got a George T Stagg at $199. this year and Elijah Craig 18 at $ 139. Plus a Harper Malt 8 year old at $ 103. I’ve found a store with great pricing on the regular bourbons but has all the limited ones at full after market. Made no sense. Had Four Roses Ltd edition at $450. No way! Has anyone noticed that the new wave is Cask Strength Bourbons? I actually favor them myself. A Jefferson Ocean Cask Strength came out at 112 proof. It is excellent.
William Larue Weller isn’t that good. Especially the 2014 edition. Pappy 20 is so much better. Just throwing that out there…
ISO WLW and SAZ18 2014
FT Pappy 20